Analysts feel housing crash may be at an end

Analysts feel housing crash may be at an end

House prices are on the rise again, particularly in Dublin

A number of analysts have tentatively called an end to the five year property crash.

This follows new figures from the CSO which shows residential property prices at a national level have increased by 2.3% in the year to July and 8% in Dublin.

“A recovery in prices has arrived in the Irish housing market. To mark a sustainable recovery, we would like to see it accompanied by a more substantial pick-up in transactions,” said Dermot O’Leary of Goodbody Stockbrokers.

The data for July (which is incomplete) show transactions were 4pc lower on an annual basis. Using the more complete Q2 data, transactions are 14pc higher than on the same quarter last year, similar to Q1.

Alan McQuaid of Merrion Capital, said that the second year-on-year rise in residential property prices in a row is very encouraging and should send a message to consumers that the housing market is recovering after more than five years in the doldrums. “That said, there is clearly an urban/rural divide. However, it would be more worrying if the trend was the other way around given that the greatest mass of people live/work in the Dublin area and the general surrounds.”

Philip O’Sullivan of Investec also sees a two-pole property market in Ireland for the near future.

“Looking ahead, we continue to see our two-tier narrative playing out, with the still high inventory levels continuing to act as a barrier to a sustained improvement in rural house prices over the coming months, while in Dublin and its commuter belt, much tighter supply, elevated rental yields and a superior economic outlook should continue to support upward price moves. In saying that, the extent to which the removal of the Dunne Judgment (a legal impediment to repossessions) will impact the market remains to be seen and is the key ‘known unknown’ in relation to the outlook for prices,” he said.

Leave a Reply