IBF report hints at stabilisation in housing market

IBF report hints at stabilisation in housing market

The IBF Housing Market Monitor Q2 2013, published today by the Irish Banking Federation (IBF), points to a number of indicators of stabilisation in the housing market.  These include increases in the number of dwellings listed for sale, the number of property transactions and in the level of mortgage approvals and drawdowns – although regional variations are very evident.

And in his commentary accompanying the IBF Housing Market Monitor, ESRI Economist, David Duffy, believes that the stabilisation of the housing market is in keeping with the evidence emerging of a slow improvement in the economic outlook for Ireland.

Drawing on various published data on the residential housing market to provide a composite analysis on where the market may be going, the IBF Housing Market Monitor shows the following in Q2 2013 compared to the same period in the previous year:

  • increase in the number of properties listed for sale
  • 8% increase in the number of housing market transactions
  • 9.7% increase in the level of mortgage approvals and a smaller 0.7% in the level of drawdowns

More so than other regions, Dublin and Leinster remain key drivers behind these trends – with improving activity levels primarily reflecting a more positive Dublin market.  Dublin also contributes to the volatile trend  in the number of new commencements.

Analysing a range of statistics under the three key headings of housing supply, housing prices and housing transactions, and assessing these on a composite basis, David Duffy writes in his commentary:

“At some point a more positive view of the outlook for the market, reflected in people’s price expectations, will translate into increasing demand for homeownership………….House price expectations will play a key role in determining the outlook for the housing market.

“Having weakened in Q1 2013, as activity slowed following a surge at the end of 2012 due to the ending of mortgage interest relief, mortgage approvals and drawdowns both recovered in the second quarter.  Mortgage approvals rose by an annual rate of 10% while drawdowns increased by a more moderate 1%.

“The stabilisation of the housing market is in keeping with the evidence emerging of a slow improvement in the economic outlook for Ireland.  Although uncertainty remains about the international economic outlook, an increasing number of economic indicators are showing improvement rather than continued decline.  Many of these relate to factors that underpin the housing market.”

The IBF Housing Market Monitor is published quarterly and can be viewed on the IBF website here.

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