Collapse in property prices during crash was worse than first thought, says CSO

Collapse in property prices during crash was worse than first thought, says CSO

The collapse in Irish property prices was more severe than previously estimated while cash buyers pay less for property than other buyers, according to new data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The figures, which are based on stamp duty statistics rather than mortgage drawdown data, and include information on cash purchases for the first time, show the peak to trough fall in residential property prices was 54.4 per cent, not 50.9 per cent as recorded previously.

They also show that the recovery in the market since 2013 has been stronger with prices up on average by 43.2 per cent rather than 37.4 per cent as estimated previously.

The CSO’s new Residential Property Price Index also reveals that first-time buyers have essentially been railroaded out of the market since 2010.

The index suggests first time buyers’ share of the market fell from 53.1 per cent in 2010 to 24.4 per cent in 2015.

The figures , which utilise a range of new data, also reveal a massive variation in the average price paid for property across Dublin and between the capital and the rest of the country.

With an average price of €733,006, householders paid more for a house in Dublin 6 in 2015 than for any other postal district.

The second most expensive district was Dublin 4, with an average house price of €724,535.

Householders paid least in Dublin 10, where the average house price was just €157,527.

The index reveals house prices in the Dublin City administrative zone are leading recovery from a national low point in March 2013 and houses in the Mid West region have been the slowest to recover to date.

In the year to July, residential prices at a national level increased by 6.7%, according to the latest Residential Property Price Index Report from the CSO.

This increase compares with an increase of 4.9% in June and an increase of 6.1% recorded in the year to July 2015.

According to the new look property price index report, residential prices increased by 2.5% in the month of July. This compares with an increase of 1.0% in June and an increase of 0.8% in July of last year.

Residential property prices are currently 34.7% lower than at their highest level in April 2007.

According to the report: “Prices declined steadily over the years 2010 to 2011, followed by a bottoming out in 2012 to 2013. Since then, prices have risen again. However, the rise in prices has been uneven, with noticeable fluctuations up to the present point in time.

“The trend in the volume of transactions filed with the Revenue Commissioners has been much more volatile, although it has generally followed an upward trajectory from 2010 to the present date. It is worth noting that from 2013 onwards, both prices and volume of transactions have, in general, been increasing.”

In the Dublin residential property market, prices increased by 3.8% in the 12 months to July 2016. This compares with an increase of 2.5% in the year to June and an increase of 4.5% in the year to July 2015.

Dublin residential property prices increased by 1.6% in the month of July. This compares with an increase of 0.4% in June and an increase of 0.4% in July of last year.

Dublin residential prices are now 58.2% higher than their lowest level (April/May 2012) but remain 35.3% below their peak price level in 2006.

Compared to property prices nationally, which fell 54.4% from peak to trough, Dublin prices fell further, falling 59.1% from high point to low point. However, Dublin prices began to recover sooner and have recovered further than national prices. Currently Dublin prices are just 12.7% less than their base value (January 2005), compared to 14.5% nationally.

In the year to July, residential property prices outside Dublin increased by 11.3%. This compares with an increase of 8.9% in the year to June and an increase of 12.5% recorded in the year to July 2015.

Residential prices nationally excluding Dublin increased by 3.5% in the month of July. This compares with an increase of 1.9 % in June and an increase of 1.3% in July of last year.

Residential property prices nationally outside of Dublin are 40.4% higher than at the lowest point in May 2013. However, prices are 39.0% lower than at their highest level in 2007.

House prices outside Dublin have increased 41.7% from their low point in May 2013. House prices have increased 11.2% in the 12 months to July 2016 but remain 37.5% lower than their peak level.

Apartment prices outside of Dublin have consistently underperformed relative to house prices. Apartment prices have increased 13.0% in the year to July but remain 53.5% lower than their peak level.

There are 2 comments for this article
  1. Sean at 8:36 pm

    Economists think German housing policy struck a much better balance between government involvement and private investment than in many other countries. For instance, in the UK, when the government gave housing subsidies to encourage the building of homes after the war, only public-sector entities, local governments, and non-profit developers were eligible for them. That effectively squeezed the private sector out of the rental market. In Germany, “the role of public policy was to follow a third way that involved striking a sensitive balance between ‘letting the market rip’ in an uncontrolled manner and strangling it off by heavy-handed intervention,” wrote economist Jim Kemeny, of the German approach to housing policy.

    Britain also imposed stringent rent and construction cost caps on developers of public housing. Under those constraints, housing quality suffered. Over time, the difference between publicly and privately financed construction became so glaring that rental housing—which was largely publicly financed—acquired a stigma. In other words, it became housing for poor people.

    Germany also loosened regulation of rental caps sooner than many other countries, according to economist Michael Voightländer, who has written extensively about Germany’s housing market. By contrast in the UK, harsher regulation on rented housing stretched well into the 1980s, pushing landlords to cut back on maintenance and driving the quality of housing down still further.

  2. peadar at 3:04 pm

    Someone should put a sign or two up at the entrance points to the country “Welcome to Ireland – spiritual home of the Muppet Show”.
    Young people are being controlled and then hammered by the government lead policies on loans, house building and rent control. The policies – rather lack of coherent one’s are just not working.
    Germany has rental controls – and they work fine.
    France has special deals for first time buyers.
    Denmark has regulations in relation to vacant properties not being utilised.
    Ireland has – screw young people unless they happen to be loaded with cash.

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