We are pleased to debut our annual forecast for the Mortgage market here on MyHome.ie. Every year we try to look into our very broken crystal ball and determine what might come next. This year we have some interesting thoughts (whether they come true is another matter!).
- We have finally hit rock bottom (in terms of lending), and we will see a larger number of both draw-downs and higher total lending in 2012 (up from current c. €2.4bn for 2011).
- That banks will offload some of their tracker loan books to IBRC (formerly known as Anglo) in an attempt to reduce their ‘performing’ loss making loans.
- That 20,000+ mortgage accounts will be deemed ‘unsustainable’ and this will result in a large number of voluntary possessions, assisted sales and post ‘standard forbearance’ measures as mentioned in the Keane Report.
- Property prices are likely to continue downwards but we may be close to bottom in Dublin, in particular the non-apartment second hand sector of the market.
- Rates may come down for new borrowers, the ECB may hit an all time low, deposit prices will drop too.
You can read this and much more in the report (here) or click on the image, and we look forward to your agreement or disagreement on it. In the spirit of proving how falable we are we also reviewed the quality of the calls we made for 2011 in late 2010 – if you want a laugh just skip to that part (ouch!).
There has been a host of big reports out this week, here at MyHome.ie the Property Barometer was released on Tuesday, and coming soon we’ll also have a ‘Rent or Buy’ calculator in conjunction with Irish Mortgage Brokers and it will help you to determine whether it makes sense to buy a house or not.
2012 is bound to be a really exciting year in the mortgage and property business, we’ll be here with you every Friday to navigate it! We hope you enjoy the report and please readers, do yourselves justice (as you always do) and critique the hell out of it!
Karl Deeter (@karldeeter)